A new report by investment bank Goldman Sachs says that AI could replace equivalent of 300 million jobs and a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe. But it may also mean new jobs and a productivity boom, and it could eventually increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7%. Generative AI, able to create content indistinguishable from human work, is “a major advancement”, the report says.
Employment prospects
“We want to make sure that AI is complementing the way we work in the UK, not disrupting it – making our jobs better, rather than taking them away,” UKTechnology Secretary Michelle Donelan told to the English newspaper Sun.
The report notes AI’s impact will vary across different sectors – 46% of tasks in administrative and 44% in legal professions could be automated but only 6% in construction and 4% in maintenance, it says. In a previoulsly investigation of BBC News some artists concerns AI image generators could harm their employment prospects.
Lower Wages
Carl Benedikt Frey, future of-work director at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, said to BBC that the only thing he is sure is that there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI. He added “What ChatGPT does, for example, is allow more people with average writing skills to produce essays and articles”.
We can agree with him and we can add that journalists, as
exemple, will therefore face more competition, which would drive down wages, unless we see a very significant increase in the demand for such work.
Consider the introduction of GPS technology and ride sharing platforms like Uber and lyft in the U.S. Suddenly, knowing all the streets in Los Angeles or New York City had much less value – and so incumbent drivers experienced large wage cuts in response, of around 10% as the new report, and resulting in lower wages, not few drivers. Over the next few years, generative AI is likely to have similar effects on a broader set of creative tasks.
Pinch of Salt
According to research cited by this report, 60% of workers are in occupations that did not exist in 1940. But other research suggests technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs.
And if generative AI is like previous information-technology advances, the report concludes, it could reduce employment in the near term. The long-term impact of AI, however, was highly uncertain. The chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank Torsten Bell told BBC News, “so all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.
We do not know how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work”.
That’s not to say that AI won’t disrupt the way we work, but we should focus too on the potential living-standards gains from higher-productivity work and cheaper-to-run services, as well as the risk of falling behind if other firms and economies better adapt to technological change.
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